Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 45.115817 53.028046 61.640881 71.677452 83.015013 95.388268 109.874937
2025-01-19 30.935128 40.918631 52.820510 67.904309 86.347820 107.995627 135.141708
2025-01-26 25.248009 36.506635 50.861723 70.180881 95.137576 125.903653 166.264859
2025-02-02 22.209682 34.560373 51.190750 74.662406 106.301062 146.783947 201.708746
2025-02-09 19.179224 31.963136 50.063645 76.730048 114.054162 163.384862 232.273674
2025-02-16 16.589446 29.499115 48.654760 78.005925 120.503618 178.309977 261.101743
2025-02-23 14.161184 26.846472 46.549187 77.895414 124.754683 190.220696 286.188828
2025-03-02 11.862714 24.003181 43.745097 76.340947 126.604482 198.651397 306.625148
2025-03-09 10.209039 21.966540 41.920295 76.004347 130.056074 209.326472 330.466601
2025-03-16 8.175474 18.888921 37.980401 71.859796 127.279541 210.617251 340.695309
2025-03-23 7.419525 18.090617 37.812399 73.805345 134.021904 226.214921 372.297122
2025-03-30 6.459901 16.718554 36.449506 73.565226 137.168513 236.414626 396.176865
2025-04-06 6.067045 16.578057 37.533053 78.024029 148.888498 261.308146 444.764059
2025-04-13 4.740837 14.138396 33.971392 73.934184 146.180365 263.716607 459.522353
2025-04-20 4.272218 13.568577 33.995216 76.372051 154.707868 284.351757 503.352980
2025-04-27 4.063518 13.592107 35.226816 81.172934 167.623640 312.642507 560.302573
2025-05-04 3.664616 13.035019 35.143928 83.386764 176.020119 333.817237 606.648024
2025-05-11 3.253834 12.346199 34.670653 84.752489 182.913070 352.727293 649.978451
2025-05-18 2.803219 11.425125 33.534445 84.634206 187.003809 367.009951 686.205579
2025-05-25 2.332851 10.305177 31.755820 82.970207 188.015190 375.970825 713.873492
2025-06-01 1.998026 9.514207 30.648722 82.609835 191.450993 389.224578 749.101154
2025-06-08 1.543366 8.144977 27.839361 78.170941 186.529432 387.388409 758.595380
2025-06-15 1.403896 7.884332 27.908586 80.255044 194.753007 409.433228 809.711678